COVID-19 Forecasting: A Statistical Approach

Authors

  • Arti Saxena FET, Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies Faridabad, Haryana, India
  • Falak Bhardwaj FET, Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies Faridabad, Haryana, India
  • Vijay Kumar FET, Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies Faridabad, Haryana, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3329/bjms.v20i5.55401

Keywords:

SARS-coronavirus-2; COVID-19, Statistical Analysis; Forecast; Fbprophet; Moving Average; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.

Abstract

Background: SARS-coronavirus-2 is a new virus infecting people and causing COVID-19 disease. The disease is causing a worldwide pandemic. Although some people never develop any signs or symptoms of disease when they are infected, other people are at very high risk for severe disease and death.

Objective: If we’re able to intervene to prevent even some transmission, we can dramatically reduce the number of cases. And this is the public health goal for controlling COVID-19.

Methods: This article initializes an approach for comparatively accurate values prediction of new cases and deaths for a particular day in order to be considered for preventive measures. The three statistical analysis methods considered for forecasting are Fbprophet, Moving average and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average algorithm.

Results: The results obtained are in-line with the past and present trend of COVID-19 data collected from WHO website.

Conclusion: The output is satisfactory for further consideration.

Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.20(5) 2021 p.85-96

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Published

2021-09-05

How to Cite

Saxena, A., Bhardwaj, F. ., & Kumar, V. . (2021). COVID-19 Forecasting: A Statistical Approach. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science, 20(5), 85–96. https://doi.org/10.3329/bjms.v20i5.55401

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Original Articles