Development of Fire Risk Assessment Model Using a Dual-Phase Approach

Abstract

filthy environments are prevalent. Every year, fire poses significant loss of property along with many lives that adversely impact economic and social life. In Bangladesh, 24102 fire cases have been recorded in the year 2023, while approximately 500 people were directly affected. The BNBC provides guidelines for buildings related to fire safety; however, fewer structures are evident that maintain the codes correctly. Authorities only check the apparel industries and give safety marks regarding different aspects of fire risk. The study aims to develop dual-phase fire risk assessment models considering qualitative (the design checklist of fire codes and rules) and quantitative (probabilistic) measurements. Considering Khulna city as the study context, the methodological technique is organized into two parts, first a physical survey of the selected buildings focusing on fire related checklist combining codes and guidelines, and second, a probability risk assessment model developed using a probabilistic technique that ensures better management and actions to lessen the risk rate. To better understand the likelihood of different events, we have identified four layers of probability. Among these layers, the suppression phase (layer 2) is particularly strong controlling 80% of all potential ignition and providing significant protection against most events. However, there is still a chance (0.02 probability) of extreme scenarios that could result in loss of life, particularly in residential areas. Finally, the proposed analytical model could be valuable for evaluating the fire risks and potentials of existing buildings, which further help in the decision-making of increasing the efficiency of the building structure. Identification of vulnerable structures will reduce human life and property loss along with the decision that increases fire responsiveness.

Journal of Engineering Science 16(1), 2025, 37-46