Forecasting the Average Temperature Rise in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis

Authors

  • Sneha Paul Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203
  • Shuvendu Roy Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3329/jes.v11i1.49549

Keywords:

Global warming; Climate Change; Average Temperature rise; Prediction; Bangladesh

Abstract

Global warming has caused a significant increment in surface temperature around the world, including Bangladesh. In this study, the temperature data of Bangladesh over the past 100 years has been analyzed to see the temperature increment pattern. It has been seen that the average temperature has risen by 10C over the last century. Using daily average temperature data of Bangladesh, machine learning-based time series forecasting model has been developed to predict the future temperature of Bangladesh. The model can predict the minimum, maximum, and average temperatures of any year in the future. This has been treated as a regression problem and Linear, Polynomial, and Support Vector Regression have been proposed to build the prediction model. The proposed model has a mean square error of 0.00470C which is a good margin for such a model. Using the model, the average temperature of Bangladesh is predicted over the next hundred years.

Journal of Engineering Science 11(1), 2020, 83-91

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Published

2020-10-05

How to Cite

Paul, S., & Roy, S. (2020). Forecasting the Average Temperature Rise in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis. Journal of Engineering Science, 11(1), 83–91. https://doi.org/10.3329/jes.v11i1.49549

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Articles