Forecasting cumulative COVID-19 cases in Malaysia and rising to unprecedented levels

  • Wan Muhamad Amir W Ahmad School of Dental Sciences, Health Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 16150 Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia
  • Mohamad Arif Awang Nawi School of Dental Sciences, Health Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 16150 Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia
  • Wan Mohd Nazlee Wan Zainon School of Dental Sciences, Health Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 16150 Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia
  • Nor Farid Mohd Noor School of Dental Sciences, Health Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 16150 Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia
  • Firdaus Mohd Hamzah Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
  • Farah Muna Mohamad Ghazali School of Dental Sciences, Health Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 16150 Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia
  • Mohammad Khursheed Alam College of Dentistry, Jouf University, Sakaka, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Keywords: Linear regression analysis; COVID-19; Forecasting

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 outbreak is being studied throughout the world. Adding more analysis to date strengthening the information about the illness. Here, we analysis the data of Malaysian Ministry of Health from February 15, 2020 until January 10, 2021 was analysed using linear regression model statistical analysis with aim to forecast the trend.

Materials and Methods: This study reviewed the data by Malaysia Ministry of Health from February 15, 2020, until January 10, 2021. Linear regression model statistical analysis was used for predictive modelling. The forecasting of the linear trend of the Covid-19 outbreak prediction is purposed to estimate the number of confirm cases according to the number of recoveries patients.

Results: Malaysia is currently anticipating another lockdown restriction as new confirmed case of COVID-19 hit new record high. The cumulative confirmed Covid-19 cases in MCO predicted a sharp increase. At the first of March, 2021, the predicted cumulative confirmed Covid-19 cases are 319,477 cases.

Conclusions: Covid-19 cases projected to 315766 by end of February 2021 with 3000- 4000 daily cases predicted. Initiative and proactive measurement by Malaysian government hopefully can reduce the number of cases and flatten the infection curve.

Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.20(3) 2021 p.504-510

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Abstract
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PDF
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Published
2021-04-04
How to Cite
W Ahmad, W. M., Nawi, M. A., Zainon, W. M. N., Mohd Noor, N., Mohd Hamzah, F., Mohamad Ghazali, F., & Alam, M. K. (2021). Forecasting cumulative COVID-19 cases in Malaysia and rising to unprecedented levels. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science, 20(3), 504-510. https://doi.org/10.3329/bjms.v20i3.52791
Section
Review Article