Growth patterns and instability of chickpea cultivation in Bangladesh

Abstract

Chickpea plays an important role in Bangladesh’s agriculture due to its nutritional value and contribution to food security. This study examines the growth patterns and instability of chickpea cultivation in Bangladesh over four decades (1984–2023). Using secondary data, the period was divided into four sub-periods (1984–1993, 1994–2003, 2004–2013, and 2014–2023) to analyze trends. Exponential growth functions were applied to estimate growth rates, while the Cuddy–Della Valle index measured instability. The results indicate a sharp decline in the cultivated area, particularly after 1999/2000. However, yield improvements since the mid-2000s have partly offset production losses. Growth decomposition analysis shows that yield growth (96.02%) was the main driver of production, whereas area changes (3.62%) had only a minor effect. Instability indices reveal greater variability in yield compared to area and production, underscoring challenges in achieving stable productivity. Strategic measures to stabilize and expand cultivation area, alongside continuous yield improvement, are essential to ensure the sustainability of chickpea production in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 50(2): 193-202, June 2025