Economics of shifting land from field crops to hog plum (Spondias mombin L.) cultivation in southern Bangladesh

The study was carried out to analyse the economics of shifting land from field crops to hog plum cultivation in southern Bangladesh during July to September 2018. A total of 120 farmers were selected by using multistage stratified random sampling technique to collect primary data. Result of the study shows that the per hectare average total cost of hog plum cultivation was Tk. 94,126. The average yield of hog plum was 7.97 t ha-1. Net return from hog plum cultivation was Tk. 126,921 per hectare. By cultivating hog plum, farmers obtained 56 to 93% higher net return than the other existing cropping patterns. Since the BCR (2.94), NPV (Tk. 2215,000) and IRR (59%) were very high, the land shifting decision towards hog plum cultivation was sensible. However, BCR was very low in the initial stages of hog plum plantation. Initial investment support from public or private sector could facilitate the growth of this cultivation practice.


Introduction
Per capita income, food production and GDP of Bangladesh has been increasing over the time (BBS, 2019). With the social and economic development of the country, food consumption pattern has changed in favour of high value crops such as fruits and vegetables from staple food crops (Joshi, 2005). In recent years, demand for fruits has grown much faster than the demand of food grains. Production and distribution of fruits have opened up a great opportunity for achieving food, nutritional and financial security of the country (Khandoker et al., 2017). The consumption pattern of the people depicts that there has been a constant increase in demand for fruits as compared to other crops in recent years. The total cultivable land under fruits production raised from 0.86% in fiscal year (FY) 2014-15 to 2.80% in FY 2018-19 (BBS, 2019. In 2019, national fruits production was about 4.95 million metric tons and around 11.06 lakh acres of land were used for that purpose (BBS, 2019). Among the various fruits; banana, mango, jackfruit, litchi and guava are mostly important as these are being commercially cultivated in Bangladesh. Besides these, the cultivation of hog plum is gaining popularity among farmers due to its promising higher profitability (Islam and Sujan, 2016). Amaechi (2015) found that hog plum farmers would have both economic and aesthetic benefit if they cultivate it on their fallow or cultivable lands. Hog plum is grown well throughout the southern parts of the country (Rahman, 2015). The soil and climatic conditions of Bangladesh, especially southern regions, are suitable for hog plum cultivation. In 2018-2019, the area under hog plum production was about 18,437 acres and the total production was about 40,623 metric tons (BBS, 2019). Moreover, huge portions of lands in southern parts of the country are now substituting to hog plum cultivation. The growth rates of yield, production and area of hog plum are increasing year after year. Hog plum has emerged as an important option for crop diversification in the southern parts of the country (Islam and Sujan, 2016). With this option, people of those parts of the country ensure a continuous source of income even without their conventional agricultural practices. The land alteration decisions are generally investigated at the macro level by using distributive lag model, which capture the role of different economic and non-economic factors of Int. J. Agril. Res. Innov. Tech. 10(2): 155-163, December 2020 decision making process. However, research works related to land shifting behaviour from field crops to fruits cultivation are very rare. Khandoker et al. (2014) attempted to analyse the impact of shifting land from cereal crops to Jujube cultivation in northern region of Bangladesh. Sarker et al. (2014) and Khandoker et al. (2017) investigated the profitability of shifting land from field crops to mango cultivation in northern Bangladesh. However, there was a serious dearth of literature on the production and distribution of hog plum fruits in southern Bangladesh. Therefore, an attempt was taken to analyse the economics of shifting land from field crops to hog plum cultivation in southern Bangladesh.

Methodology
A micro-level study based on primary crosssection data was designed to attain the objectives of this study. The methodology of the study was mainly about the sampling procedure, collection of data and analytical framework.

Area selection:
The study was conducted in two major hog plum (amra) growing districts of Bangladesh, namely Jhalokathi and Pirojpur. Jhalokathi sadar upazila and Pirojpur sadar upazila under Jhalokathi and Pirojpur district, respectively, were selected purposively for administering questionnaire survey. For this study, primary data were collected by using pretested questionnaire during the month of July to September, 2018.

Sampling technique and sample size:
A multistage stratified random sampling technique was followed to select sample farmers for the study. At first, two districts were selected purposively considering their higher quantities of hog plum (amra) production. In the second stage, one upazila from each district and two villages from each upazila were selected accordingly. Finally, sixty farmers were selected randomly from each district amassing a total of 120 farmers from the total study areas. Population stratification was necessitated for common heterogeneity among agricultural household (Nyariki, 2009). Special attention was given to ensure the representativeness of different aged plantation of hog plum. Collected data were rearranged based on the span of hog plum cultivation. The respondents were categorized according to their stage of hog plum cultivation as 1 st year, 2 nd -3 rd year, 4 th -5 th year, 6 th -10 th year, 11 th -15 th year and 16 th -20 th year.

Analytical techniques a) Tabular technique:
Collected data were edited, summarized, tabulated and analysed to fulfill the purpose of this study. Descriptive statistics like averages, percentages and ratios were used in presenting the results in a tabular form. The profitability of hog plum cultivation was examined on the basis of gross return (GR), gross margin (GM), net return (NR) and benefit cost ratio (BCR) analysis. Besides, the imputed value of family labour was taken into account in the time of total cost approximation. Per year lease value of land was considered for determining the land use cost. Project analysis and sensitivity analysis were also included on the paper. Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were calculated (at 5% discount rate) with the following formulas used by Sarker et al. (2014) and Khandoker et al. (2017):

Net Present Value (NPV):
The net present value (NPV) of an investment is the discounted value of all cash inflows and cash outflows of the project during its lifetime. It can be computed as: Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR): The benefit cost ratio (BCR) of an investment is the ratio of the discounted value of all cash inflows to the discounted value of all cash outflows during the life of the project. It can be estimated using the following formula: Internal Rate of Return (IRR): Internal rate of return (IRR) is the rate of return at which the NPV of a stream of incomes is nullified. The IRR is computed as: Where, Bt = Total benefit (Tk. ha -1 ) in time t Ct = Total cost (Tk. ha -1 ) in time t r = Rate of interest (discount rate) t = Number of years (t = 1, 2, 3 … … 20) The IRR was calculated with the following formula:

Multiple regression model
The OLS regression model was used to analyse the factors influencing the extent of land shifting behaviour, where both the economic and noneconomic factors were considered as explanatory variable. The relative income was included as explanatory variable to test its extent of influence. The following multiple linear regression function was fitted for present study- Where, Y = Shift of area from field crops to hog plum cultivation (decimal)

Cost of hog plum cultivation (including intercrops)
For estimating the cost of production, all the variable cost i.e. land preparation, human labour, sapling, manures, fertilizer, insecticides, etc. were calculated per hectare basis. Both cash cost and imputed value of family supplied inputs were included in the calculation. Interest on operating capital (IOC) was also considered for determining the cost of hog plum cultivation. The cost of land use was calculated on the basis of per hectare lease value of land.

Profitability of hog plum cultivation
In the study areas, average yield of hog plum was 7.97 t ha -1 year -1 . Farmers did not get any yield from hog plum cultivation in the first year. They started getting yield from 3 rd years of plantation. On 4 th year, yield was 5.32 t ha -1 . The highest amount of yield (15.15 t ha -1 ) obtained from 11 to 15 years old hog plum garden. After 15 years, yield rate had decreased. Returns from hog plum cultivation in different years are presented in Table 3. Average gross return per hectare was Tk. 221,047 per year. The average gross return from intercrops was Tk. 29,867 per hectare. The highest net return was also found in the 11 th -15 th year (Tk. 297,825 ha -1 year -1 ) followed by 6 th -10 th year (Tk. 286,904 ha -1 year -1 ). Average gross margin and net margin of hog plum cultivation were Tk. 159,741 and Tk. 126,921 per hectare, respectively. In the study areas, farmers have to spend on an average Tk. 12 for producing 1 kg hog plum. The average undiscounted BCR on total cost was 2.47. Higher cost incurred in the first couple of years for hired labour, land preparation, sapling, manures and sticking with no return from hog plum influenced the BCR to be lowest in the initial years of plantation.

Returns on investment in hog plum cultivation
Most of the cases, opportunity cost of capital is considered as the discount rate for project analysis. The results of this calculation presented on Table 4 and Table 5. For assessing benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and net present value (NPV), the costs and returns were discounted at 5% rate of interest. The benefit cost ratio (BCR) was calculated by dividing the present worth of the gross benefit by the present worth of the gross cost. BCR was 2.94 at 5% discount rate, which implies that the project was profitable. The simplest discounted cash flow measures of the project worth is the net present worth (Khandoker et al., 2017) which is determined by subtracting present worth of costs from present worth of benefits. The estimated net present worth of the project was Tk. 2215,000 per hectare.
Average earning capacity of capital used in a project over the project life is represented by internal rate of returns (IRR). It refers to that discount rate which negates the present worth of cash inflows and outflows. In the project of hog plum cultivation, IRR was 59%. This opportunity was highly acceptable because it was much higher than the opportunity cost of capital.

Sensitivity analysis
The effects of adverse changes in the project are estimated by sensitivity analysis. Three adverse situations are assessed for the project under this study. The first situation is constant return but cost increased by 10%. The second situation is constant cost but return decreased by 10%. The third situation is both cost increased and return decreased by 10%. The results of sensitivity analysis are presented in Table 6. At 5% discount rate, greater than one BCR, positive NPV and higher IRR than opportunity cost of capital imply that investment in hog plum cultivation was remunerative for 10% increased cost with constant return, 10% decreased return with constant cost, even at the worst situation of 10% increased cost with 10% decreased return.

Profitability of existing cropping patterns other than hog plum
Cropping patterns followed by farmers before shifting land to hog plum cultivation Farmers of the study areas follow various types of cropping pattern. Most of them cultivate two crops in a year. Some of them cultivate three crops also. Before starting hog plum cultivation, they cultivated mainly Boro, T. Aman, T. Aus, Pulse crops (mostly Kheshari), Potato and some short duration vegetables. A total of 18 types of cropping patterns were found. Mostly followed 8 cropping patterns are presented in Table 7. The highest percentage (22.50%) of farmers mentioned that they followed Fallow-T. Aus-T. Aman cropping pattern followed by Boro-Fallow-T. Aman (20.00%), Pulse-Fallow-T. Aman (12.50%), Potato-Fallow-T. Aman (10.00%) and Boro-Fallow-Fallow (8.33%) in their field before starting hog plum cultivation.

Relative profitability of hog plum cultivation in contrast to other prevailing crops
The costs and returns of different cropping pattern were compared with hog plum cultivation to analyse the comparative profitability. The cost of hog plum cultivation were higher than that of Boro-T. Aus-Fallow, Boro-Fallow-T. Aman, Fallow-T. Aus-T. Aman and Boro-Fallow-Fallow cropping pattern. On the other hand, for Potato-Fallow-T. Aman, Pulse-Fallow-T. Aman, Wheat-Fallow-T. Aman and Boro-Fallow-Vegetables cropping pattern, the production cost were higher than that of hog plum cultivation. Details information regarding relative profitability of hog plum cultivation are presented on Table 9 and Table 10. Total cost of Boro-Fallow-Fallow cropping pattern was 38% lower than that of hog plum cultivation whereas it was 62% and 34% higher for Potato-Fallow-T. Aman and Wheat-Fallow-T. Aman cropping pattern, respectively. However, in monetary term, per hectare total cost incurred for hog plum cultivation was Tk. 35,435 more than that of Boro-Fallow-Fallow cultivation whereas it was Tk. 58,409 less than that of Potato-Fallow-T. Aman cropping pattern.
The gross return and net return from hog plum cultivation were higher than that of all the inspected cropping patterns. Hog plum cultivators secured 69% higher gross return than that of Boro-Fallow-Fallow cropping pattern. Farmers obtained 56 to 93% higher net return than the cropping patterns analysed in this study. BCR of hog plum cultivation was also higher than that of any other examined cropping patterns. Estimated results indicate that the relative income from the crops had played a positive role for shifting land towards hog plum cultivation. Farm size also had a positive influence on land shifting decision. The variable age is negatively significant and indicates that older farmers were less interested for shifting their land. Food crop requirement had a negative impact on land shifting behaviour. It imply that higher the requirement of food crops, less likely to shift land towards hog plum cultivation and vice-versa.

Conclusions
The study was conducted to analyse the economics of shifting land from field crops to hog plum cultivation. Results of the study show that lower cost of production and higher return from hog plum cultivation than that of any other cropping pattern influenced the farmers to shift their land from field crops to hog plum cultivation. Findings also reveal that BCR of hog plum cultivation was its lowest limit in the initial stage of production but it turned out to be higher onwards till fifteen years of plantation. Support from formal or informal sectors for initial investment might play a pivotal role to flourish this unorthodox cultivation practice. Relative income and farm size had positive effect whereas farmer's age and food crops requirement had negative effect on land shifting behavior towards hog plum cultivation. Production of hog plum in fallow land or land where other crops are not grown well would increase the relative income and secure available cultivable land for cereal crops. Motivation should be given to the farmers for cultivating hog plum in these lands.