@article{Hossain_Khanam_Akhter_2022, title={An Econometric Analysis to Forecast the Food Grain Production in Bangladesh by Using ARIMA and VAR Models}, volume={70}, url={https://www.banglajol.info/index.php/DUJS/article/view/60375}, DOI={10.3329/dujs.v70i1.60375}, abstractNote={<p>In this study, an Econometric analysis has been conducted to identify the important factors that affect the food grain productions in<br>Bangladesh. Here, we have considered time series data for the years from 1989- 1990 to 2019-2020. Vector Autoregressive (VAR)<br>Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model have been considered in this study. Both these models<br>have been considered to forecast the productions of food grains in Bangladesh. The forecasting performances of these two models<br>have been compared by using RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. It has been found that the VAR model is better than the ARIMA model to<br>forecast the food grain production. On the other hand, it has been come out from the analysis that there is no significant impact of<br>chemical fertilizer on the food grain production, but irrigation area has significant impact on the food grain production. Among the<br>three variables: food grain production, irrigation area and chemical fertilizer, there exists short run relationship.</p> <p>Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 70(1): 8-13, 2022 (January)</p>}, number={1}, journal={Dhaka University Journal of Science}, author={Hossain, Md Mehedi and Khanam, Murshida and Akhter, Salma}, year={2022}, month={Jul.}, pages={8–13} }