Factors Influencing The First and Second Peak of COVID-19 Global Cases: A Survival Analysis

Abstract

Objectives: The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in December 2019 and the number of reported cases has been increased day by day. This study intends to show the scenario of time to reach the first and second peak of COVID-19 cases in different countries and also explores the potential determinants of the first and second peak time using global COVID-19 data extracted from Our World in Data dataset between 22 January 2020 and 21 January 2021.

Methods: The semi-parametric Cox-PH model has been performed to conclude effects of the covariates.

Results: The results reveal that there is a significant difference between survival times across different categories of several covariates in both the first and second peak. We have found that continent, Human Development Index, population density, life expectancy, cardiovascular death rate, hospital beds per thousand, total number of deaths have significant effects on determining the first peak of COVID-19 cases. On the other hand, Human Development Index, population density and diabetes prevalence have been found as only the significant factors of the second peak.

Conclusions: This paper sheds light on the awareness of factors of the COVID-19 waves.

Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 74(2): 321–330, 2026 (July)