Comparison of ARIMA Model and Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting the Production of Jackfruit in Bangladesh

Abstract

Jackfruit, the national fruit of Bangladesh, has the potential to meet both domestic demand and export value. In light of its significance for Bangladesh and other tropical nations, this study aims to anticipate Bangladesh's jackfruit production using the best-fitting ARIMA model by comparing it with an exponential smoothing technique. Using the data from 1971-72 to 2022-23, the ARIMA (1,2,1) model, selected via AIC metrics and validated through residual diagnostics, outperformed Holt’s exponential smoothing in RMSE and MAPE comparisons. The results show that the exponential smoothing method is not as good at fitting the jackfruit production data as the ARIMA (1,2,1) model. Therefore, we use the ARIMA (1,2,1) model to forecast Bangladesh's jackfruit production for the ensuing ten years. The forecasted graph indicates linear growth in Bangladesh's jackfruit output over the next ten years.

Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 74(2): 219–224, 2026 (July)