Track and Landfall Characteristics of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani over the Bay of Bengal using WRF Model

Authors

  • Md Shakil Hossain Department of Mathematics, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology, Khulna, Bangladesh
  • Md Abdus Samad Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh
  • Most Razia Sultana Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh
  • MAK Mallik Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Agargoan, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  • Md Joshem Uddin Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3329/dujs.v69i2.56490

Keywords:

tropical cyclone, WRF, intensity, track, vertical wind shear, SST, Bay of Bengal

Abstract

An attempt has been made to assess the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating the track and landfall characteristics of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Fani (25th April – 05th May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data (0.250×0.250). The model predicted outcomes show auspicious agreement with the observed datasets of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and India Meteorological Department (IMD). It is found that the diminished lead time of the model run plays a crucial role in delivering good consistency with the minimum forecast uncertainty. A strong correlation between the track and intensity forecast deviations has also been determined. According to the results, the model simulation which captures the minimum deviation in the intensity forecast also ensures better track prediction of the system. The feasibility of the track and landfall forecast by the model even up to 27 hr advance is reasonably well. Finally, it can be decided that the model is capable to predict the cyclonic storm Fani precisely and it can be chosen confidently for future events over the BoB.

Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 69(2): 101-108, 2021 (July)

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Published

2021-12-01

How to Cite

Hossain, M. S. ., Samad, M. A. ., Sultana, M. R. ., Mallik, M., & Uddin, M. J. . (2021). Track and Landfall Characteristics of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani over the Bay of Bengal using WRF Model. Dhaka University Journal of Science, 69(2), 101–108. https://doi.org/10.3329/dujs.v69i2.56490

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