Present Scenario and Future Outlook of Precipitation in the Boro Season of Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh’s economy still relies heavily on agriculture, which is intrinsically tied to climate. Climate change threatens the country’s food security. Accurately forecasting future climatic conditions is essential for strategic agricultural planning and adaptation. The Boro season (January through April) constitutes one of Bangladesh’s primary cropping periods, and many crops, especially rice, depend on rainfall. The objective of this study is to generate precipitation maps for Bangladesh over three periods: 1970–2000 (past), 2000–2018 (present), and 2040–2060 (future, around 2050), focusing on January through April. We used projected outputs from CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models and applied GIS techniques—raster statistics, raster extraction, and zonal statistics—to compile, analyze, and visualize the data. The results indicate that by 2050, rainfall is expected to increase by approximately 5–10 mm during January to March, while April precipitation will decline by about 3–6 mm compared to the 2010–2018 baseline.  As in current conditions, eastern Bangladesh will receive the highest precipitation in 2050, while the northwestern region remains the driest. The findings provide valuable insights for developing climate-resilient agricultural strategies, particularly in crop planning, irrigation management, and policy formulation.

Bangladesh Rice J.29(2): 55-70, 2025